Introduction
This course will explore the use of models in the evaluation of alternative management policies for natural resources. The three major topics covered will be (1) modelling approaches, (2) fitting models to data and (3) evaluating alternative management policies. Particular emphasis will be placed on methods of incorporating ecosystem interactions in such analysis, and in exploring spatial dynamics with models appropriate for the design of biological reserves.
THE MODELS
Simple models of total numbers or biomass
Delay difference models that implicitly include survival and growth
Generation-generation models
Age structured models (Leslie matrix)
Size structured models
Ecosystem-food web models
Models of predation and functional relationships
Models of low density dynamics and extinction
Spatial structure and meta-populations
FITTING MODELS TO DATA
Sum of squares model fitting
Probability distributions
Maximum likelihood
Likelihood profile
POLICY EVALUATION
Monte-Carlo methods for forward projection
Feedback control policies
Calculating extinction risk
Optimal harvesting
Design of biological reserves
Computations will be done in a combination of EXCEL and R. Experience in both of these software systems is desireable but not essential.
Major background readings will come from:
Case, TJ. 2000. An illustrated guide to theoretical ecology. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Burgman, M.A., S. Ferson and H.R. Akcakaya. 1993. Risk assessment in conservation biology. Chapman and Hall. New York. 314 p.
Hilborn, R. and M. Mangel. 1997. The Ecological Detective: confronting models with data. Princeton University Press. 315 P.